HOME 정보검색 검색결과상세정보

Implementing the Trade Facilitation Agreement: From Global Impacts to Value Chains

2019-09-30

Utsav Kumar | Asian Development Bank
Ben Shepherd | Developing Trade Consultants

Manila : Asian Development Bank
ISSN: 2313-5867
eISSN: 2313-5875
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/WPS190444-2

28 pages
ADB South Asia Working Papers Series ( No. 67 )

http://www.adb.org/

초록

This paper uses a newly developed empirical methodology, general equilibrium pseudo maximum likelihood, to estimate and conduct counterfactual simulations using a gravity model of bilateral trade augmented with a variable capturing the extent to which importing economies have implemented the provisions of the World Trade Organization Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA). The method is fully theory-consistent and, unlike previous work, takes account of the general equilibrium effects. Concretely, we find that full implementation of the TFA could boost world trade by close to $344 billion or 3.5% of the baseline (2015), with a corresponding change of 0.15% in global real output. In addition, we show that the bulk of these gains accrue to economies based on their own reforms of import procedures, and do not depend on the actions of trading partners. Finally, we find suggestive evidence that TFA implementation could promote the further development of value chain trade particularly in middle-income economies, by shifting the composition of manufactured goods trade further toward intermediates.

목차

>> I. INTRODUCTION
>> II. DATA
>> III. ECONOMETRIC MODEL
>> IV. RESULTS
>> V. CONCLUSION AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS