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Anchoring Growth: The Importance of Productivity-Enhancing Reforms in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

2013-12-11

Era Dabla-Norris | International Monetary Fund |
Giang Ho | International Monetary Fund |
Kalpana Kochhar | International Monetary Fund |
Annette Kyobe | International Monetary Fund |
Robert Tchaidze | International Monetary Fund |

Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund

36 pages
IMF Staff Discussion Note ( SDN/13/08 )

http://www.imf.org/

초록

Recent growth performance. Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) as a group have experienced a remarkable period of growth until recently, with convergence resuming in many countries. Improvements in growth performance have been facilitated by better policy and institutional settings, increased trade and financial integration, and exceptionally favorable external conditions (notably strong external demand, buoyant commodity prices, and ample global liquidity). Productivity gains accruing from shifts in the composition of output toward high-productivity sectors have also played a role in some EMDEs. This overall picture, however, masks an uneven pace of convergence across regions and countries, reflecting considerable heterogeneity in growth drivers. Sustaining convergence. The global economic outlook remains tepid and tailwinds of the past decade are fading. Growth in many EMDEs has already slowed, reflecting a combination of cyclical factors and domestic supply-side constraints in some countries. Prospects will depend on how well countries do in establishing macroeconomic and structural conditions conducive to sustained growth. Although further capital deepening, the fostering of human capital accumulation, and increases in labor utilization remain potential sources, convergence in a less favorable external environment and with less benign demographics could be testing. Productivity-enhancing structural reforms are needed to boost technological catch-up, facilitate structural transformation into higher productivity sectors and new activities, and better allocate existing resources in the economy. Varying challenges. For low-income countries, maintaining a dynamic growth trajectory will require raising agricultural productivity, continued shifts of labor out of agriculture, rapid accumulation of capital, and technology diffusion in labor-intensive sectors. For many emerging market economies, productivity gains from past reforms and sectoral reallocation away from agriculture may have already peaked and, in any event, old growth models may no longer suffice. Sustaining growth and income convergence will instead require more intensive patterns of growth, greater flexibility to shift resources across sectors, efforts to reduce resource misallocation within sectors, and the capacity to innovate and apply more knowledge and skills-intensive production techniques. These strategies would be especially important as economies become increasingly services-based. In many resourcerich EMDEs, efforts to enhance productivity in sectors of comparative advantage, while facilitating economic diversification would be pivotal for achieving sustained growth. Calibrating reforms to stage of development. Empirical evidence based on countries’ distance to the global technology frontier suggests that reform priorities for unlocking productivity growth and sustaining growth potential vary across income groups. In low-income countries, strengthening economic institutions needed for market-based economic activity, reducing trade barriers, reforming agricultural and banking sectors, and improving basic education and infrastructure would spur productivity growth. In lower-middle income countries, to varying degrees, reforms in banking and agricultural sectors, reducing barriers to FDI and increasing competition in product markets for a more vibrant services sector, improving the quality of secondary and tertiary education, and efforts to alleviate pertinent infrastructure bottlenecks would be a priority. In upper-middle income countries, boosting productivity growth will require a focus on deepening capital markets, developing more competitive and flexible product and labor markets, fostering a more skilled labor force, and investing in research and development and new technologies.

목차

>> I. CONTEXT
>> II. UNDERSTANDING PAST GROWTH DRIVERS: A SUPPLY-SIDE PERSPECTIVE
>> >> A. Sources of Growth
>> >> B. Sectoral Patterns of Productivity Growth
>> III. LOOKING AHEAD: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
>> IV. WHAT POLICIES WILL ENHANCE PRODUCTIVITY?
>> >> A. Structural Reform Lessons from the Past
>> >> B. Calibrating Policies to Stage of Development
>> V. FINAL REMARKS

참고문헌

  • Berg, Andy | Jonathan D. Ostry | Jeromin Zettelmeyer (2012) , What Makes Growth Sustained? , Journal of Development Economics , VOL.98 No.2 , pp.149 ~ 166
  • Christiansen, Lone | Martin Schindler | Thierry Tressel (2013) , Growth and Structural Reforms: A New Assessment , Journal of International Economics , VOL.89 No.2 , pp.347 ~ 356
  • Restuccia, Diego | Richard Rogerson (2013) , Misallocation and Productivity , Review of Economic Dynamics , VOL.16 No.1 , pp.1 ~ 10

부록

ANNEX I. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK